If some random or chaotic process, like a roll of dice, the flip of a coin, or the Forex market appears to depart from normal random behavior over a series of normal cycles — for example if a coin flip comes up 7 heads in a row – the gambler’s fallacy is that irresistible feeling that the next flip has a higher chance of coming up tails. In a truly random process, like a coin flip, the odds are always the same. In the case of the coin flip, even after 7 heads in a row, the chances that the next flip will come up heads again are still 50%. The gambler might win the next toss or he might lose, but the odds are still only 50-50. Get More Quality and Efficiency Info from Foreign Exchange.
What often happens is the gambler will compound his error by raising his bet in the expectation that there is a better chance that the next flip will be tails. HE IS WRONG. If a gambler bets consistently like this over time, the statistical probability that he will lose all his money is near certain.The only thing that can save this turkey is an even less probable run of incredible luck.
Most traders know of the various patterns that are used to help predict Forex market moves. These chart patterns or formations come with often colorful descriptive names like “head and shoulders,” “flag,” “gap,” and other patterns associated with candlestick charts like “engulfing,” or “hanging man” formations. Keeping track of these patterns over long periods of time may result in being able to predict a “probable” direction and sometimes even a value that the market will move. A Forex trading system can be devised to take advantage of this situation. The trick is to use these patterns with strict mathematical discipline, something few traders can do on their own.
A greatly simplified example; after watching the market and it’s chart patterns for a long period of time, a trader might figure out that a “bull flag” pattern will end with an upward move in the market 7 out of 10 times (these are “made up numbers” just for this example). So the trader knows that over many trades, he can expect a trade to be profitable 70% of the time if he goes long on a bull flag. This is his Forex trading signal. If he then calculates his expectancy, he can establish an account size, a trade size, and stop loss value that will ensure positive expectancy for this trade.If the trader starts trading this system and follows the rules, over time he will make a profit.
Winning 70% of the time does not mean the trader will win 7 out of every 10 trades. It may happen that the trader gets 10 or more consecutive losses. This where the Forex trader can really get into trouble — when the system seems to stop working. It doesn’t take too many losses to induce frustration or even a little desperation in the average small trader; after all, we are only human and taking losses hurts! Especially if we follow our rules and get stopped out of trades that later would have been profitable.
If the Forex trading signal shows again after a series of losses, a trader can react one of several ways. Bad ways to react: The trader can think that the win is “due” because of the repeated failure and make a larger trade than normal hoping to recover losses from the losing trades on the feeling that his luck is “due for a change.” The trader can place the trade and then hold onto the trade even if it moves against him, taking on larger losses hoping that the situation will turn around. These are just two ways of falling for the Trader’s Fallacy and they will most likely result in the trader losing money.
There are two correct ways to respond, and both require that “iron willed discipline” that is so rare in traders. One correct response is to “trust the numbers” and merely place the trade on the signal as normal and if it turns against the trader, once again immediately quit the trade and take another small loss, or the trader can merely decided not to trade this pattern and watch the pattern long enough to ensure that with statistical certainty that the pattern has changed probability. These last two Forex trading strategies are the only moves that will over time fill the traders account with winnings.